Bismarck is on the Grow!

Are you tall? Seriously, how would you answer that question: are you tall? I recall a conversation with my building principal who was considerably over six feet tall. He was telling me about his brother. I asked, “Is he tall, too?” My boss looked at me and said, “Nah…he’s maybe… six-three, six-four.” (Oh, a little person, then).

I found his reply kind of fascinating. From his benchmark, his little brother was indeed “little”, a mere six-foot-four. That seems rather tall from the perspective of someone who is not quite five-foot-three. Yet I am tall, compared with my 25 year old niece Hannah, who is four-foot-eleven. It seems everything is relative to the standard in mind.

Take for example people who lament that North Dakota is slowing down, maybe coming to a standstill regarding growth. What is the comparison? The good news is we are moving from a period of unsustainable and rapid growth of five percent to a time of consistent and steady growth of two percent. Is that a decline? Yup, two is indeed less than five. However, at two percent Bismarck is still growing much faster than in the recent past, before the boom, when it was growing at one percent. Bismarck was on the grow. Bismarck is on the grow. Our city is now growing at a manageable rate, and as a school district, it is incumbent upon us to manage and plan for that growth. This demands a different strategy than was used during the recent boom.

When I first came to BPS five years ago, we faced a tsunami of new students. In response, the community gave us permission to build three new schools, move the sixth grade to middle school, and the ninth grade to high school, draw new boundaries to both fill new schools and maximize efficiencies wherever we could find space, remodel some areas and provide equity all over the district. Because Bismarck is still on the grow – not so much a tsunami as a gradual and steady flood, we need to respond by managing growth. Providing space at middle schools, studying elementary schools for equity as well as knowing when a building has served its useful life as a school house, and providing equity at the high schools are our next jobs.

People are moving to Bismarck for a number of reasons: jobs in health care and the service industry, as well as retirees seeking senior housing and medical care. The mayor told Renae Hoffman Walker and me in a meeting recently there are plans for $100 million in commercial construction as well as 6,000 new housing starts.

Here is some snapshot data.

BISMARCK POPULATION  
Year Population Actual/Projected 10-Year Increase  
2000 55,392    
2010 61,272 +5,880 actual increase over 2000  
2020 79,370 +18,098 projected increase over 2010  
2030 96,865 +17,495 projected increase over 2020  
2040 114,361 +17,496 projected increase over 2030  
2000-2040 TOTAL +58,969 projected increase; more than double actual 2000 population.  
Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Community Development Dept., 2015.
BURLEIGH COUNTY POPULATION  
Year Population Projected 10-Year Increase
2010 81,308  
2020 100,986 +11,595
2030 110,932 + 9,946
2040 113,937 + 3,005
2010-2040 TOTAL +24,546 projected increase
Source: 2016 ND Dept. of Commerce Census Office “Projected Migration Scenario”– assuming a higher rate of in-migration to the state in the earlier years and a gradual leveling off in future years; changing economic conditions can affect actual population change.

EMPLOYMENT

  • Bismarck-Mandan employment gained 2.2% in 2015 (compared to Fargo-Moorhead at 1.0%).
  • North Dakota’s non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 2.8% for December 2015, unchanged from December 2014. The national rate in December 2015 was 4.8% un-employment.

Source: ND Job Service Dec. 2015 report.

  • ND has highest Gallup Good Jobs employment rate of all 50 states at 51.5%.

Source: Gallup January 2016.

BISMARCK HOUSING DEMAND PROJECTIONS  
Year Owner Rental Total
• 2015-2020 1,754 1,250 3,004
• 2020-2025 1,668 1,215 2,883
• 2025-2030 1,884 1,306 3,190
TOTAL 5,306 3,771 9,077 additional housing units in 15 years (2015-2030)
Source: Hanna: Keelan Associates, P.C., 2015, ND Housing Demand Analysis through 2030.  
PAST STUDENT ENROLLMENT
• Bismarck Public School first day fall enrollment (K-12) for 2011-12 through 2015-16 school years.
2011 11,008 +   233  
2012 11,417 +   409  
2013 11,776 +   359  
2014 12,049 +   273  
2015 12,410 +   361  
5-year increase: +1,635    
PROJECTED 5-YEAR ENROLLMENT
Grades 2015-16 2019-2020    
K-5 6,124 6,909 +  785 (1,152 students per K-5th grade by 2020)  
6-8 2,734 3,379 +  645  
9-12 3,546 3,955 +  391  
K-12 12,422 14,242 +1,820 (added to 1,635 in past 5 years is 3,455)  
Source: school demographer Rob Schwarz, RSP & Associates

As people talk about growth in North Dakota, remember Bismarck was on the grow at one per-cent, then was on the grow too fast at five percent, and is now on the grow at two percent. We need to respond to that growth in a manner that provides equitable schools for students and staff and protects academics, culture, and economics. Please stay in tune with plans to do just that.

 

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Birds, Blossoms & Budgets…

Springtime means birds chirping and flowers blooming. It’s also budget season. Do you know the five major budget categories in our district, what they fund, and why?

General Fund: this is the main fund for all financial resources and district expenditures EXCEPT those below. This fund provides for employees, books, materials, etc.

Capital Project Funds: these are used to acquire or construct major capital facilities. Some of the revenue in this fund comes from the sale of bonds, as well as building and special assessment levies allowed for school districts. For example, some of the money for the new district Athletic Complex will come from this account, as well as from private donors. With spring will come the first major use of that facility—a soccer game between CHS & St. Mary’s on April 9th!

Debt Service Funds: an account for the accumulation of resources for, and the payment of, general long-term debt, principal and interest.

Child Nutrition/Food Service Funds: for operations of lunch programs that are financed and operated in a manner similar to private busines The stated intent is that the costs (expenses, including depreciation and indirect costs) of providing food services to the students are financed or recovered primarily through user charges/meal fees.

Student Activity Funds: for activities supporting school related extracurricular activities. Under state law, school districts are required to deposit all receipts from extracurricular activities in this fund.

You will start to hear more about the 2016-17 budget on Monday, March 14. We are taking some positions to the School Board that we feel we need to post now to get the best candidates. There are other positions and program/school “enhancements” being proposed by administrators; we will roll those out as we get a better handle on how much we may be able to underspend at the end of this school year (2015-16). We anticipate it will be the kind of budget year where we have to do some “spring cleaning” by identifying what we are willing to forgo if we want to add something else.

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Growth and the Wisdom of Crowds

Three truths often surface during problem solving sessions:

  1. In the absence of information, people make stuff up;
  2. There is some wisdom in crowds (when there is an organized way for all to be heard); and
  3. Having your say is not the same as getting your way (but your say still matters and might change the world – or at least the decision).

So join us at our Public Forums regarding BPS facility needs.

Here are the issues:

If not one more single student enrolled in BPS, the secondary schools would grow by over 500 students in three years. This is, of course, because the elementary enrollment has grown so large. Our three middle schools are at or beyond capacity right now. How should BPS respond to the need for space for 500 more?

Despite negative stories you may hear about ND’s economy, our enrollment this year grew by 361 students, the biggest leap it has taken since I have been here.

Elementary enrollment is still increasing, though the curve has flatted a bit. All indications show elementary enrollment will continue to grow. How should we problem solve both the growing need for school space on the north side, in Lincoln, and in areas on the south? What should we do about those few aging elementary schools? What about those that are not handicap accessible?

BPS has solved high school space into the foreseeable future. Yet we know CHS and BHS have equity needs in terms of arts facilities, collaboration space, and core areas. What shall we do about those needs?

How valuable is the feeder system? Can BPS repurpose some buildings to respond to needs more efficiently? What size middle school is the right size? What size is too big? How about for elementary?

These and other problems will be addressed at the Public Forums. If you can attend one, please do. That way, you will have information and can use it when people begin making stuff up. You will be able to hear some unique and perhaps wise solutions posed by groups of community members. And you will leave having had your say, all of which is important to the 75 member community task force who will make recommendations to the School Board.

Our goal, ultimately, is to increase academic achievement by providing valuable educational experiences for students while maintaining reasonable school and class sizes. We must present financially realistic options.

You are invited to provide input at one of two public forums:

  • Wednesday, Jan. 27 , 6:30-8 pm, Simle Middle School cafetorium, 1215 North 19th Street OR
  • Thursday, Jan. 28, 6:30-8 pm, Horizon Middle School cafetorium, 500 Ash Coulee Drive.

Future steps:

  • The Facilities Committee will reconvene in February to use input to develop “plans” to present to the community at a final public forum set for Tuesday, March 1, 6:30-8 pm, at Wachter Middle School cafetorium, 1107 South 7th St. Please plan to attend.
  • RSP Associates, our planning consultant, will put together a plan and may conduct a community survey for broader input.
  • The School Board will then select a final course of action, which will be communicated to parents, students, school district employees, and the community later this spring.

We will work to keep you informed as this process unfolds. If you have any questions, please contact our Community relations Director Renae Walker, 701-323-4091, renae_walker@bismarckschools.org.

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The Wisdom of Crowds: Have Your Say

There is wisdom in crowds. I am asking you for yours, please.

The Bismarck Public School Board adopted goals this year, one of which is “to work with the community to develop a fiscally-responsible three-year facilities plan that meets the District’s future needs in ensuring a safe and optimal learning environment for BPS students and staff.”

To that end, the Board directed administration to create a task force of parents, school representatives, and business leaders to look at enrollment trends in Bismarck Public Schools, tour and study various buildings, and craft options for responding to facility needs due to continued growth and other educational issues.

Proposals will be presented at public forums set for 6:30-8 pm on Wednesday, January 27 at Simle Middle School, and Thursday, January 28 at Horizon Middle School. The presentations will be similar each night and the public is invited to give input.

In February, the 75-member Facility Planning Committee will refine the proposed solutions before presenting them to the Board. There may also be another public input session in March.

Planning documents are posted at www.bismarckschools.org under the green tab on the left; public forums are listed under Upcoming Events.

And if you are wondering what the other Board goals are for this 2015-2018, they are as follows:

  • Ensure the academic achievement and success skills of every single BPS student.
  • Empower BPS staff through professional development and focused initiatives to master the standard-based teaching, learning, assessing, and reporting cycle to positively impact growth in student learning.
  • Engage stakeholders through communication and collaboration to build understanding of and support for student achievement goals.

 

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Gun Safety: Ask

Concerned about Gun Violence in Schools?

Of course, we are all concerned about gun violence in schools. But did you know 80 percent of firearm deaths of children under 15 occur in a home, not in school? Stunningly 1.7 million children live in a home that has a loaded, unlocked firearm within reach of children. While this may not be your home, it may be the home your children are on their way to visit.

Sometimes the gun is in plain view; often it is hidden, perhaps in a closet, as was the gun that killed three year old Markie. See her story here: www.askingsaveskids.org .

Each day, nine children and teens are shot in gun accidents. Talking is not enough. Writing blogs is not enough. Clearly hiding guns is not enough. Children, particularly boys but not only boys, will play with a firearm if they find one. And children somehow find them.

What do do? Markie’s mom shares this tip: before you allow your children in your own home or anyone else’s home, ask this question: “is there an unlocked gun in your house, anywhere?” Ask this question of daycare providers, friends hosting a party, your child’s grandparents, everyone. As awkward as it may feel, ask the question.

For those who own guns, the advice is simple: store them unloaded and locked away. Store the ammunition separately from the firearm.

Markie’s mom lives with profound regret. She didn’t know to ask the question. She urges you to find the courage to ask the question.

To date, 19 million households have been invited to join the ask. You can keep kids safe by becoming one of them.

Information taken from www.askingsaveskids.org

 

 

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A License to Learn

When I was about 16 years old, I made a deal with the state of Minnesota. I would travel at or below the speed limit and stop all at stop signs. In return, the judge who took my license and put it in his desk drawer would give it back to me in two weeks. I reflect often on both the state trooper who ticketed me in the Leaf River bottom as a group of friends and I sailed home from the drive-in theater and on the black robed judge who showed me how fast a privilege can disappear. Those two public servants may just have saved my life. It was a lesson I needed, bullet-proof, wild child that I was.

Before you give me the “tsk, tsk” for my teenage indiscretions, consider this: a staggering 49 percent of adults admit to texting and driving, even though 98 percent of adults say they know the practice is unsafe. Read that again. Half of us admit it.

Glance up and look around. Consider every other person presently in your line of sight. It takes only five seconds, on average, for a driver to send a text, yet two seconds is the length of time a person can safely glance away from the road while operating a motor vehicle. In other words, writing a text message distracts the driver two and a half times as long as is safe. And half of all drivers admit to doing it.

Here are some more reasons by the number why using a cell while driving is an unwise choice:

Nine: that’s the number of Americans killed every day from motor vehicle accidents that involved distracted driving, such as using a cellphone, texting, or eating.

1 in 4: the probability that a motor vehicle crash involved a cellphone.

341,000: the number of motor vehicle crashes in 2013 that involved texting.

40%: the percentage of teens who say they have been a passenger in a car whose driver used a cellphone in a way that put them in danger. Read that one again. Four in every ten kids report it. Our kids, the ones we teach, are in those cars and feeling unsafe. Talk about this with students!

33%: the percentage of U.S. drivers ages 18 to 64 who reported reading or writing text messages while driving in the previous month. Compare that to Spain where the percentage was 15 –still too high but half that of the USAs. Consider the modeling going on for the next generation who will become drivers.

Four times: how much more likely you are to crash if you are using a cellphone while driving.

46: the number of US states (plus Puerto Rico, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands) where texting is banned for all drivers, regardless of age. (It’s not a good idea anywhere).

I am not lecturing you, dear reader. I try teach myself first. My cell goes in my backpack and into the back seat. Putting temptation out of reach works for me. What works for you? It will take you around 21 days of consistent practice to break the bad habit of using a digital device while driving. But we can break a bad habit.

On Wednesday while I was walking home from work a young man drove down Washington on a small motorcycle. He was not wearing a helmet. He was talking on his cell, on Washington, at rush hour. I stood still and watched him roll past. He was oblivious to me and everything on his right and left. As I stood there, I said one more small prayer of thanks for my trooper and my judge.

 

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The Next Legacy

Legacy High School (LHS) opened officially, last week. After a few trips in the building the real intent behind the bricks and mortar settles in. LHS is really just a school where time (the school schedule), technology (ubiquitous use of inexpensive computers), and space (building design) interplay to create conditions where students can learn. Though LHS feels big on first encounter, it is not all that much bigger than BHS. And it is similar to both BHS and CHS in that the impact of the teacher far outweigh the mash up of time, tech, and building. In other words, it is the teacher and the teacher’s lesson design that has the greatest impact on student achievement. That is not particular to LHS but a fact shared across all of BPS.

There is discussion going on regarding educational changes. This video may help explain the discussion going on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZEZTyxSl3g

 

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Wise Advice from Mary Hill

I will miss Mary Hill, retired BHS Assistant Principal, this school year. One of many pearls of wisdom Mary framed include, “Every kid has a back story. Every one.” She mentioned this in response to staff person saying, “Had I known what this child was going through, I would have responded differently”. Mary’s sage advice reminds us that we know better. We know every child has a back story. That’s important walking-around-knowledge because many of us were raised in Skinnerism, the belief that all behavior is choice, that when people make bad choices, they gotta face consequences, that punishment teaches better behavior. Hmmm…..

If it is true that every child has a back story, then it is equally true that not every behavior is a choice. What if Everything You Thought You Knew About Discipline is Wrong? What then?

Human behavior, much like math, is learned. That means, at least to me, that unproductive behaviors can be unlearned. And unlearning, like learning, begins first by looking respectfully at the learner, coming to understand what the learner knows to be true, for even if the “knowing” isn’t quite right, it is quite real. Unlearning, like learning, has room for wondering on behalf of the adult (Why is the student showing this behavior? What might help him begin the writing assignment?). Next, the student needs voice and choice in defining how to combat his or her unproductive behavior. Once the student helps build the plan, the adult may provide consistent feedback absent of extrinsic rewards, ribbons, or stars.

Every student has a back story. Every student deserves to be understood and to understand how he or she can come to self-regulate. This blog isn’t suggesting teachers and administrators haven’t already figured that out on an individual basis. I am speaking about a consistent, systemic response to children who struggle the most with executive functioning. Productive behavior begins not only with the child but also with all the adults knowing how to discipline for growth, independence, and success versus knowing how to punish. We’ve got good work ahead of us.

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2015 Lesson Learned

After having been involved in dozens and dozens of high school graduations, I still find every single ceremony profoundly meaningful. Each year, I stand witness to another group of people’s belief in education, in their children, in themselves, in a rite of passage from “school kid” to a “young adult ready to take on college, career, and community life”. It simply never gets old.

At the recent honoring celebration of BPS students who are Native, Dr. Tami Decoteau delivered a message to American Indian graduates about the power of vision, using her own career trajectory as an example. Here are a few key points that I gleaned from her exemplary and moving message delivered on June 6, 2015:

  1. Experiencing poverty and hardships can eventually result in the healing of others. Don’t doubt it. Don’t deny the potential power of your hardships putting you in a position to understand the hardships of others;
  2. Absolutely refuse to give up. Dr. Decoteau said there was a time when she did not know how to make her brain do the studying and learning it needed to do. She kept struggling, found a study-mate, spent hours in the library. She came to realize God wasn’t going to hand it to her on a silver platter. “He isn’t a wishing well,” she said. She said she had to work for it, especially when she wanted to give up;
  3. Decide if you are going to make your vision your target. This is a big deal, to go from dreaming to focusing in on the result you want for yourself and your life;
  4. Realize the power of relationships. “We are relational beings,” said Dr. Decoteau. “We cannot be successful alone. We aren’t meant to be. Relationships provide seeds of hope.”
  5. She added (and I love this), “We do not come together to compete with one another but to complete one another.”
  6. Believe in the power of prayer. When you are on brink of failure, your human mind tells you it is too late, the goal is too far, you are too weak – but your Creator thinks otherwise.
  7. She ended with this lesson, which is perhaps the one I love best of all lessons I learned this year: “Take responsibility for your life. Your people need you.”

 

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Living in a Tech Rich World

I attended a night class last night. Online. In a vehicle. From Bismarck to Fargo. While it would not be my first choice to take a class via IVAN versus taking a class in person, and it would not be my second choice to attend a class in a moving vehicle, my other choices would be to withdraw from a very, very good doctoral program and / or to find another three hours in my overcrowded calendar to watch the recorded class session and write a paper for being absent. At least four other students in the class of 12 were taking the class remotely; 8 were on site. The difference between those four remote students and me was their remote location was stable while mine was mobile. However, I asked my professor if it were an imposition to have a student in a moving vehicle. His response, “That’s a first for me but it is education in the 21st Century. Let’s try it.” We did. It worked beautifully, allowing me to learn the material and participate with the group. (Note, I was a passenger in the vehicle, not a driver).

This year, technology proved to be valuable during the staff development session at CHS where we learned theory about pyramid construction. Due to a deadline for the intercom, I had a hard choice to make. I could stay at Hughes and write my intercom article or I could attend the professional development session on inquiry that our own math and science people worked so hard to bring to us. I chose both: I attended the session (and I am glad for it!) and I wrote the intercom article on my phone, taking photos and capturing ideas throughout the presentation. Before I left the CHS gym, I submitted my article via email and then had opportunity to walk the vendor booths, learning what was new in the textbook publishing and resource world.

Just last semester when I was a struggling student in structural equation modeling, technology saved the day. Our final involved finding a published article which made use of confirmatory factor analysis and, using the data sets described in the article, re-run the statistical model. The complexity of how factors interact with latent variables is simply too much for the human mind (and not just my weak mind, pretty much all humans would have a similar struggle). I turned to software called Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS) to run my model and report the findings.

In each case above, technology proved to be the tool that supported the work that needed to get done. In no case was technology the main thing. In fact, the learning about Planning and Assessment (my class), the applied inquiry (the common experience of the Egyptian pyramid brought to us by our teachers), and the analysis of data (CFA, AMOS) was the main thing. In each case, as learners, we were asked to collaborate, communicate, use creativity (online, in car), and think critically (not only about the learning but the potential imposition and misunderstanding of tech use by a 2oth Century mind in a 21st Century environment). Furthermore, I made careful and deliberate decisions about digital citizenship, which to my delight, were more often supported than denied.

We all know we are digital immigrants. It was mildly awkward to be the my professor’s first online / in car student, it was quite difficult to write that intercom article on the tiny screen of my cell phone, and it was truly frightening to re-run the CFA model in AMOS, praying it would please, please, please work. The students in front of us today are not digital immigrants. The have never lived in a world without 24/7 access to goolge and each other. Thus, their application of technology will always be faster than ours. They will stretch our beliefs about proper use of technology. They will adapt to and adopt new apps more quickly than we will. In fact, we will always be behind them. And I think that is entirely OK. The goal – at least my goal – is not to decide whose world is right, that of the digital immigrants or that of the digital natives (to steal Prensky’s terms). The goal is to keep on learning and teaching, teaching and learning, collaborating across generations, being creative in how we can harness technology to satisfy our learning goals, thinking critically about complex information (such as multi-variate statistics), and communicating, in writing, in person, or electronically.

As I close this article, I am opening my browser to join a webex team, meeting in cyberspace to study statewide AdvancEd reports. But just as there is a time to harness every ounce of productivity digital tools can offer, therei is a time to put them to rest. Early this evening, I am going to plug in my laptop and my cell phone to recharge. Next, I am going to pick up a beverage, watch the lake, and listen to the loons and recharge my own battery, perhaps the most important practice in a digital world.

 

 

 

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